A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
