Just 60 days in the past that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was far more favourable. When the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their opening six games, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with two clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
